Is this the beginning of the technological future? - Ben Evans, Sixth Former

In Back to the Future part 2, Doc Brown and Marty McFly travelled to October 21st 2015. It’s now November 16th 2018.  So, where’s my hoverboard, why don’t my shoes tie themselves, what gives? The future always seems to be so far away, and every time there’s a technological breakthrough, people seem less and less amazed. We’ve become numb to the rate at which technology progresses, and now, it could be slowing down.

In 1965, Gordon E. Moore predicted that the power of computers would double every two years. This was an ambitious claim to say the least, and people had many doubts about the computing industry, as shown in these quotes:

‘I think there is a world market for maybe five computers’ – Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
‘Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons’ – Popular Mechanics Magazine, 1949 
‘There is no reason anyone in the right state of mind will want a computer in their home’ – Ken Olson, President of the Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

It came to pass that the people who were the most successful in the next 50 years were those who saw the potential of computers. Gordon Moore obviously believed in this potential and he later became a co-founder of Intel. His prediction was so accurate in fact, it became known as a law, Moore’s law. However, Moore’s law is ending. Not because we are getting worse at making computers, in fact we’re finding more efficient ways to do it all the time, which I will talk about later, but we are hitting some barriers. A processor is made up of billions of tiny switches, called transistors. Just like a light switch, these can be on or off and nothing else. If on is represented as a 1 and off as a 0, you can create a binary system, and this is the basis of all classical computing. As we make transistors smaller, we can fit more into the same space and thus we get smaller computers that are just as powerful. This effect is known as miniaturisation. The issue is that we have become so good at making transistors small, that the next smallest thing is a single atom. This poses a few issues, and it is the main reason that processors are no longer becoming twice as powerful every two years. The other reason is that the more power we put in, the hotter the computer gets. We have reached a level where if not cooled properly, most of the computers we use would simply melt and burn. Electronics are also far less efficient unless they are cooled. This is why the computer cooling industry is somewhat booming at the moment, and the prices show it.

While it may seem like we are reaching the end of technology development as we know it, we’re not and there are many things to be excited about in the future. I’ve personally noticed that advertisement for ‘futuristic’ technologies has certainly increased. The other day I saw four adverts in a row on new technologies. The first was for Microsoft AI, a project that involves programs that allow deaf people to ‘see’ sound, something I am actually researching for my computing coursework, drone security and helping architects recreate history in virtual reality. The next was completely about virtual reality, and how it could be used to affect people going through therapy, children going through education and using it to see chemical molecules in 3D. I then saw an advert for Samsung’s new 8k TV and finally a Siemens advert for voice controlled appliances. I didn’t really know what to think. Why would you need to spend hundreds of pounds on a virtual reality headset to see molecules in 3D, when you can just buy one of the model kits we have in our department for a fraction of that. 8K TV? Just to put that into perspective, that’s 33 million, 177 thousand, 600 pixels. The human eye can barely see the difference in 4K. Enough pixels! As for voice controlled appliances, if you’re going up to the washing machine to put the clothes in anyway, you may as well press the button while you’re there.

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